如何激活windows和office z





微软绝大部分windows系统都是要收费的,平常购买产品密钥来激活系统后也会过期,或者系统也会出现未激活状态,此时很多系统功能都会受到一定限制,使用小马OEM8激活工具可以轻松的激活win7、win8、win8.1、win10系统,而且还可以免费激活Office办公软件,小马OEM8工具使用方便、下载解压后即可一键免费永久激活windows系统。
  小马OEM8激活工具(一键免费永久激活windows和Office)功能特点:
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  2.不需要输入任何路径;
  3.不需要手动选择软件版本;。
  4.不占用系统任何资源。
  支持版本:支持所有32位/64位的Windows系统和Office2010/2013办公软件。
  小马OEM8激活工具(一键免费永久激活windows和Office)V2015.01.12升级说明:
  1、优化了Office和Windows系统所有版本的激活
  2、优化程序,减少系统资源占用
  3、其他一些细节修改



已经下载了,可以直接用。

How can a person learn to say "no"?




Saying "no" unskillfully nearly cost me my life.  I was trained to be firm and calm; to repeat "no" as many times as necessary until the boundary was made clear.  "No," they said, "is a complete sentence."  

One of the things we teach, in my job with court-mandated clients, is discipline, and one of the ways we do this is by enforcing punctuality.  On a summer afternoon, 15 minutes into a process group, a young stranger threw open the door and walked in.  

He was short, maybe 5' 1, and pale.  His pants hung low on his hips and, looking back, he was too confident for someone wearing a plaid golf cap too big for his head.  

I asked him to step outside with me - as was company policy - to explain how to attend a make-up activity and send him on his way.  I was half standing when he said, "No. I'm staying."  He was physically in front of the closed door.

"You can come back next week, but I can't allow you to attend today."
"You will let me attend today." 
"No, I can not."

After several long minutes of back and forth I finally said.  "I can't allow you to attend, but I am not going to physically force you out the door.  You will be getting no credit for today. You need to leave."  I sat back down with the group.  "What's a situation in your life when someone wouldn't take 'no' for an answer?" I asked.  

After five more minutes of being ignored he left, and the group continued.  An hour later the group was over and I was standing outside my office talking to a client.  One of the group members came running down the hall, eyes wide. 

"Diane! Don't go outside! He's waiting for you in the parking lot with a gun!"

Long story short, he didn't shoot me or anyone else.  By the time the authorities arrived he was gone.  When we realized he wasn't in my paperwork and the clients who reported him melted away at the mention of the police I started shaking so much I had to sit down.   The officer taking the report said, "People like this make a couple mortal enemies every day.  Lay low for a bit and he'll quickly forget you in his rage at the checker in the grocery store."  I found this equally distressing and comforting.

I went to visit my godparents in the mountains.  I refused the gun they offered when it was time to go home.  I got and still keep big dogs at my house.  For the next several months I scanned the faces of the hundreds of clients I passed in the halls at work.  He showed up occasionally in my dreams, or his hat did at least, because in my memory I still can't see his face.



One of my friends makes me laugh when he says the state motto of Arizona is "An armed society is a polite society."   So, all this to say, here's how I've learned to say no:

"I wish...but..."

"I wish I could let you into group late, but the state law says we can't."
"I wish I could include your ideas in my next workshop, but the curriculum is already worked out."
"I wish that I could lend you $100, but I am short this month."

When things are intense I add "and" to the mix. 

"I wish I could have you stay on my couch, but my home is my refuge and I need my quiet time."
"I wish I could just let you in this one time, but the law is really clear and I'd lose my job."

If it gets emotional or extreme, I load on validation and send them somewhere for more help.
I know, it's awful. You came a long way and the bus was late, and if I could I would SO break the rules for you.  Maybe you can head up to the front office and see about setting up a make up group right after group next week."

"No," some people say, "is a complete sentence."  It is; it's just not always the best sentence for the job.

What are useful social skills that can be picked up quickly?



  1. Smile
  2. Shake hands with confidence
  3. Ask questions before you talk about yourself
  4. Don't act clingy or desperate
  5. Talk about ideas not people
  6. Be reliable and do what you say you're going to do
  7. Laugh, tell jokes
  8. Be humble
  9. Wear clothes that complement your body type, get a modern haircut, and take care of your personal hygiene
  10. Draw connections from your own life to another person's life in a meaningful way

How to reinstall windows OS?

Recently I broken my hard disk of my computer. 

Here is what I have done:

1. Download the windows 7 OS img file from campus software central website (free).

2. Install a USB flash drive for windows 7 installation:
  2.1 Follow this link: http://jingyan.baidu.com/article/d3b74d64a397631f76e6096d.html on how to make a usb installation flash drive.
  2.2 You should use a flash drive more than 4GB at least. 

3. Just replace my computer hard disk with a complete new one, and then plug in flash drive and start the computer. 

The rest will be very straightfordly follow the screen tips. If you forgret the product key, just skip it. It might ask you to setup product key later, but you can search online to get one. 

Then download the automatical driver installer according your computer brand. Then that's it.

It does not cost too much time, 20 minutes should be enough. 




In my opinion, data science is finding right quesitons, anwering questions, solving problems, taking actions or making decisions based on analyzing related data. It is basically quantitivative or data-driven problem-solving discipline. That's why it is so important in our current century. 

One thing we should bear in mind is that data science not only focuses on answering a specific question as the normal analytics will do, but also focuses on finding the right question to answer. That's why we have the word "science" in this term. 

发信人: kkkuuu123 (kkk), 信区: Faculty

This is a  story talk about the funding pressure for fauculties. 

Could this country or world do something to help them?



发信人: kkkuuu123 (kkk), 信区: Faculty
标  题: 考虑离开这个圈子了
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Sun Apr 19 22:20:01 2015, 美东)

在一个公立大学工程学院AP了4年,越来越觉得想离开这个圈子。主要来自找钱的压力
,尽管对做研究还是有兴趣的。我们这里比较资源匮乏,老人们和州里的那些给钱的机
构已经有长期合作关系。虽然也不做什么研究,就靠着那点钱养一两个PHD也可以混日
子。倒是苦了我们这些小虾米们。我也不是不努力去找,而是过去一两年也见了不少人
,联系了所有都能联系的地方,但没有实质进展。越挫越勇之后,现在免得麻木无奈了
。在这里呆越久越郁闷,除了找钱之外也厌倦这里的工作和生活氛围。系里就关心你的
数目,连个seminar都没有。学校在一个什么都没有的小town,老婆找不到工作。虽然
短时间内在家带小孩没什么问题,但也不是长久之计。
心里其实很矛盾。一方面知道需要更加努力去找钱但提不起劲来,面临tenure的风险。
另一方面如果一旦tenure了,跳走的机会就更难了。看清楚了这些东东也好,跟自己当
初对于教授这个职业的期待大相径庭。也许是当初老板给自己创造了一个过于理想的状
态。今年试着跳槽,没成功。也许明年再试一次,不过已经开始申请业界工作做备胎。
觉得远离这个无止境的找钱-发文章-找钱循坏也许是好事。
在这个里发发牢骚,也看看有没有类似处境的朋友可以共勉

How Uber's Autonomous Cars Will Destroy 10 Million Jobs and Reshape the Economy by 2025



I have spent quite a bit of time lately thinking about autonomous cars, and I wanted to summarize my current thoughts and predictions. Most people – experts included – seem to think that the transition to driverless vehicles will come slowly over the coming few decades, and that large hurdles exist for widespread adoption. I believe that this is significant underestimation. Autonomous cars will be commonplace by 2025 and have a near monopoly by 2030, and the sweeping change they bring will eclipse every other innovation our society has experienced. They will cause unprecedented job loss and a fundamental restructuring of our economy, solve large portions of our environmental problems, prevent tens of thousands of deaths per year, save millions of hours with increased productivity, and create entire new industries that we cannot even imagine from our current vantage point.

The transition is already beginning to happen. Elon Musk, Tesla Motor’s CEO, says that their 2015 models will be able to self-drive 90 percent of the time.1 And the major automakers aren’t far behind – according to Bloomberg News, GM’s 2017 models will feature “technology that takes control of steering, acceleration and braking at highway speeds of 70 miles per hour or in stop-and-go congested traffic.”2 Both Google3 and Tesla4 predict that fully-autonomous cars – what Musk describes as “true autonomous driving where you could literally get in the car, go to sleep and wake up at your destination” – will be available to the public by 2020.

How it will unfold

Industry experts think that consumers will be slow to purchase autonomous cars – while this may be true, it is a mistake to assume that this will impede the transition. Morgan Stanley’s research shows that cars are driven just 4% of the time,5 which is an astonishing waste considering that the average cost of car ownership is nearly $9,000 per year.6 Next to a house, an automobile is the second most expensive asset that most people will ever buy – it is no surprise that ride sharing services like Uber and car sharing services like Zipcar are quickly gaining popularity as an alternative to car ownership. It is now more economical to use a ride sharing service if you live in a city and drive less than 10,000 miles per year.7 The impact on private car ownership is enormous: a UC-Berkeley study showed that vehicle ownership among car sharing users was cut in half.8 The car purchasers of the future will not be you and me – cars will be purchased and operated by ride sharing and car sharing companies.

And current research confirms that we would be eager to use autonomous cars if they were available. A full 60% of US adults surveyed stated that they would ride in an autonomous car9 , and nearly 32% said they would not continue to drive once an autonomous car was available instead.10  But no one is more excited than Uber – drivers take home at least 75% of every fare.11 It came as no surprise when CEO Travis Kalanick recently stated that Uber will eventually replace all of its drivers with self-driving cars.12

A Columbia University study suggested that with a fleet of just 9,000 autonomous cars, Uber could replace every taxi cab in New York City13 – passengers would wait an average of 36 seconds for a ride that costs about $0.50 per mile.14 Such convenience and low cost will make car ownership inconceivable, and autonomous, on-demand taxis – the ‘transportation cloud’ – will quickly become dominant form of transportation – displacing far more than just car ownership, it will take the majority of users away from public transportation as well. With their $41 billion valuation,15 replacing all 171,000 taxis16  in the United States is well within the realm of feasibility – at a cost of $25,000 per car, the rollout would cost a mere $4.3 billion.

Fallout

The effects of the autonomous car movement will be staggering. PricewaterhouseCoopers predicts that the number of vehicles on the road will be reduced by 99%, estimating that the fleet will fall from 245 million to just 2.4 million vehicles.17

Disruptive innovation does not take kindly to entrenched competitors – like Blockbuster, Barnes and Noble, Polaroid, and dozens more like them, it is unlikely that major automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Toyota will survive the leap. They are geared to produce millions of cars in dozens of different varieties to cater to individual taste and have far too much overhead to sustain such a dramatic decrease in sales. I think that most will be bankrupt by 2030, while startup automakers like Tesla will thrive on a smaller number of fleet sales to operators like Uber by offering standardized models with fewer options.

Ancillary industries such as the $198 billion automobile insurance market,18 $98 billion automotive finance market,19 $100 billion parking industry,20 and the $300 billion automotive aftermarket21 will collapse as demand for their services evaporates. We will see the obsolescence of rental car companies, public transportation systems, and, good riddance, parking and speeding tickets. But we will see the transformation of far more than just consumer transportation: self-driving semis, buses, earth movers, and delivery trucks will obviate the need for professional drivers and the support industries that surround them.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics lists that 884,000 people are employed in motor vehicles and parts manufacturing, and an additional 3.02 million in the dealer and maintenance network.22 Truck, bus, delivery, and taxi drivers account for nearly 6 million professional driving jobs. Virtually all of these 10 million jobs will be eliminated within 10-15 years, and this list is by no means exhaustive.

But despite the job loss and wholesale destruction of industries, eliminating the needs for car ownership will yield over $1 trillion in additional disposable income – and that is going to usher in an era of unprecedented efficiency, innovation, and job creation.

A view of the future

Morgan Stanley estimates that a 90% reduction in crashes would save nearly 30,000 lives and prevent 2.12 million injuries annually.23 Driverless cars do not need to park – vehicles cruising the street looking for parking spots account for an astounding 30% of city traffic,24 not to mention that eliminating curbside parking adds two extra lanes of capacity to many city streets. Traffic will become nonexistent, saving each US commuter 38 hours every year – nearly a full work week.25 As parking lots and garages, car dealerships, and bus stations become obsolete, tens of millions of square feet of available prime real estate will spur explosive metropolitan development.

The environmental impact of autonomous cars has the potential to reverse the trend of global warming and drastically reduce our dependence on fossil fuels. Passenger cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and minivans account for 17.6% of greenhouse gas emissions26 – a 90% reduction of vehicles in operation would reduce our overall emissions by 15.9%. As most autonomous cars are likely to be electric, we would virtually eliminate the 134 billion of gasoline used each year in the US alone.27 And while recycling 242 million vehicles will certainly require substantial resources, the surplus of raw materials will decrease the need for mining.

But perhaps most exciting for me are the coming inventions, discoveries, and creation of entire new industries that we cannot yet imagine.

I dream of the transportation cloud: near-instantly available, point-to-point travel. Ambulances that arrive to the scene within seconds. A vehicle-to-grid distributed power system. A merging of city and suburb as commuting becomes fast and painless. Dramatically improved mobility for the disabled. On-demand rental of nearly anything you can imagine. The end of the DMV!

It is exciting to be alive, isn’t it?

sealeen

1楼 评论时间: 2015-04-09 22:08:43

我当时站在街角,看你吸了一口气,轻轻地叩开那扇门。一念间,鼻子很酸。赞一个近乎发二的勇敢^_^ 

-----------------------------------
该评论来自手机Qzone

一道高级data scientist的题


标  题: 一道高级data scientist的题,请教

发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr  8 19:39:36 2015, 美东)

重复丢骰子,直到点数之和大于等于某个数M。
Q1: M=10000,点数之和减去M的平均值是多少(也就是期望)?
Q2: M=10000,点数之和减掉M的标准差是多少?
Q3: M=10000,投掷骰子的平均次数是多少?
Q4: M=10000,投掷骰子次数的标准差是多少?
You roll a fair 6-sided dice iteratively until the sum of the dice rolls is 
greater than or equal to M.
Q1. What is the mean of the sum minus M when M=10000
Q2. What is the standard deviation of the sum minus M when M=10000
Q3.What is the mean of the number of rolls when M=10000
Q4. What is the standard deviation of the number of rolls when M=10000

股票的税率

发信人: han6 (周瑜), 信区: JobHunting
标  题: Re: 问下股票的税率
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Apr  3 01:33:09 2015, 美东)

发股票的时候有三种选择
1.补税保留股票,也就是说你账上要准备x/3的钱,然拿到价值x股票的时候用这些钱加
税,所有股票保留;
2.卖掉部分股票交税,账上不必存钱,发股票时自动帮你卖掉价值x/3的股票,用卖股
票所得交税,剩下2x/3的股票留在账上;
3.卖完全部股票,顾名思义,相当于多发了x的工资,按照普通收入保税。

【 在 autumnworm (虫子,秋天的) 的大作中提到: 】
: 给的时候扣一定比例交税。假设价格x,你算是交了价格x的税。你卖的时候价格y。交
: 税是算y-x的gain,不是全价交。

Strategies and skills for mentoring


How do I find a mentor and establish a mentoring relationship?

1. Identify your mentoring needs.
2. Assess your viability as a mentee.
3. Do some research.
4. Narrow your choices.
5. Select your mentor.


From the student's perspective, how to make a productive 
. tell the mentor about what they are at and where they are planning to do.
. report progress and keep the mentors in the loop.
. summarize the meeting and clarify the points that the both sides expect and understand. 
. keep a positive attitude and open for communication. 


From the faculties perspective, how to make a successful mentorship.
. Introduce your students to others. This will encourage the students a lot.
. Inspire and motivate the student with a clear picture so that they know where they are going and feel excited about make the dream come true.
. Set up a regular meeting so that everyone standing on the same page.

回首麻省理工六年:從惶恐不安到從容不迫

惶恐不安的開始

回首七年前二月中的某一天,我收到了來自麻省理工的信。

還記得當時我點開信件的手顫抖著,也記得當時的我無法安下狂跳的心來讀完整封信,只能用掃描的方式尋找關鍵字。

反反覆覆在信上來回看了幾遍,終於在信的第一段的最後看到了-- "Congratulation!"。

是的,我錄取了麻省理工的電腦科學暨人工智慧實驗室(CSAIL)。

收到麻省理工的錄取信,是什麼樣的感覺呢?我相信每個人都不一樣,但當時我的心情,真的很複雜。更清楚地說,我當下開心了三分鐘,但接下來的我馬上被焦慮不安給淹沒。

我真的值得嗎?即使大學四年的每一天,我時時刻刻都為了這個目標而努力,但當錄取信握在我手中時,我仍然不斷懷疑,我夠好嗎?我有資格嗎

這是全世界最頂尖的麻省理工耶,我真的可以嗎?這樣惶恐不安的心情,一直伴隨著我到達美國。

剛到美國時,有幸認識一些同時被錄取的好朋友,也因為有當地學長姐的幫忙,所以在生活上適應的很快,但是在研究方面,我卻吃足了苦頭。

第一個接手的研究題目可發展性相當侷限,我整整花了一年多的時間與失敗相處,最後終於發現在一個特定的測試環境之下,我們採取的方式表現優於傳統方式。

但這不是一個灰姑娘的故事,我的研究生涯並沒有因為嘗盡種種失敗得到成功後而有轉折,反倒是因為接連失敗的關係,我的指導教授對我的能力完全不具信心。

也許是這樣的關係,我接下來一年所接觸到的研究專案,都是創新性、可延伸性低的專案。

我嘗試著藉由提出我個人認為有趣的研究方向來翻轉這樣的處境,但總是得到指導教授的冷回應。

在這樣的環境下工作,其實是非常痛苦的,心裡的煎熬更不在話下。

當時的我真的很困惑也很沮喪,我不斷地問我自己,為什麼在全世界第一流的學府,我要做這樣的研究?

這樣下去,當我有一天離開了這個學校,我真的能具有麻省理工的實力嗎?還是我只能打著麻省理工的招牌,沾這個招牌的光?

我反覆思索這個問題,然後我確切地告訴我自已:我不要沾光,我要值得這個名號後面隱含的意義。

➢充滿關鍵的轉折

終於,在要進入博士班第二年的暑假,來自同實驗室學長的一句話,讓我的研究生涯有了重要的轉折。那

位學長是我個人認為在我們組裡研究算是相當成功的學生,我跟他提了我的心情,原本以為研究順遂的學長只會安慰我幾句,沒想到學長竟跟我說,他也曾經歷過我的處境。

當時的他秉持著證明給教授看的心情,一步一步慢慢做、一步一步成功地說服教授。

學長的話給了我相當大的鼓勵,因為我認定研究最成功的學長,居然也經歷過和我相似的處境?如果學長能渡過這些挑戰,也許我也可以?

我抱著這樣的想法,開始一頭鑽入我所提出的研究計劃。

但完成計劃需要時間,而在實驗還沒有成果之前,我必須不斷地說服指導教授,請他相信我並給我機會。

這個過程,真的很孤獨,質疑的聲音不僅僅來自外界,也來自我的心裡,但我只能盡力忽略懷疑的聲音,不斷調整心態。

最後,前前後後將近半年的時間,我終於從無到有地把一個研究計劃做出來:靠自己發想研究方向、大量閱讀文獻,大量地和同學討論,思考如何設計實驗、執行實驗,用了整整一個月的時間撰寫了一篇教授看完只能修改兩個字的論文,並且說服指導教授讓我把論文投稿到最頂尖的會議。

這中間的過程,用文字帶過看似雲淡風輕,但其中著實充滿了酸甜苦辣。

那篇論文後來很幸運的被錄取了,根據我實驗室的同學做的小小追蹤,那篇論文是那次會議裡引用次數最多的五篇論文之一。

然而,我心中認定最大的收獲卻是得到了教授對我的信任。

在那次獨立執行研究專案以後,我的教授開始對我另眼看待,他開始給我機會到其他學校、會議做演講,當他受邀給演講時,也總是會介紹我的研究。

依然記得有一天當他在準備演講稿的時候,他跟我說:"I want to show them the most exciting thing here."。

➢從容不迫的達陣

我的教授開始給我大量的自由,因為有絕大部分的自主性,我可以選擇做我有熱忱的題目,因為有熱忱,所以即使研究陷入瓶頸,我也可以抱著正面的態度面對層層關卡,然後一一突破。

我不敢說我的研究帶來了多重大的突破與發現,但是,抱著好奇的心,我發現及探索了新的領域,現在實驗室裡有兩到三位研究生,延續著我的博士論文做著研究,我想這應該可以算是我對學術界做的一點小小的貢獻吧!

然而對於我個人而言,更重要的卻是,我可以沒有慚愧地對自己說,我在麻省理工紮實地走過了一遍。

回首看待在麻省理工的六年,那充滿轉折的半年扮演著關鍵的角色,因為那半年,讓我有了從零到一獨立創造的經驗,這對我後來職涯的選擇有著很深遠的影響(我婉拒了數間大型軟體公司的邀請,而選擇加入新創公司)。

在那半年裡我學到了幾件重要的事情,在這裡與大家分享:

1. 突破舒適圈:

在尋找研究方向的過程中,我大量地往外探索,看CSAIL其他領域的學生在做什麼樣的研究,思索他們的研究創新程度在什麼樣的水準,因為這樣的審視,讓我可以用更全觀的角度來引導我自己該走的方向。

此外,我也大量閱讀我所熟知領域以外的文獻來激發靈感,有問題就寫信給在CSAIL做相關研究的同學--在CSAIL最大的好處就是你的同學就是專家。

2. 獨立:

我徹底了解除了我自己之外,沒有人會承擔我的未來。教授的人生不會因為我寫不出博士論文而有改變,但是我的人生卻可能因此而陷入低潮好一陣子。

所以,我學到了,我必須主動為自己爭取。

不喜歡研究的題目,我就必須說服教授讓我換題目,而不是埋頭苦幹,希望有一天教授會突然發現這個題目缺乏發展性。

3.堅持:

我無法再強調堅持的重要性了。然而,這兩個字說起來雖然簡單,做起來卻相當困難。我自己也不能算是個毅力特別強的人,但是根據過去的經驗,我發現堅持其實有個小訣竅,那就是把大目標拆成中目標,中目標再分割成容易達到的

小目標。擁有可以容易達成的小目標相當重要,因為小目標達成時的成就感,可以形成驅使我們繼續向前源源不絕的原動力。

希望這篇文章能夠讓有心想到國外深造的學子們,一窺現實的研究生活是怎麼樣子,並且能夠在出發之前建立正確的態度。也

希望能夠帶給正踏在學術研究這條道路上的學生一些鼓勵:你會走過的--從惶恐不安到從容不迫的這條路。

(作者簡介:李佳盈,2008年自臺大電機系畢業後,即赴美深造。分別在2010年和2014年取得麻省理工碩士及博士學位。熱愛機器學習這個領域,喜歡用多樣的角度看世界,現在在舊金山打拼人生。)

- See more at: http://blog.cw.com.tw/blog/profile/62/article/2009#sthash.jnxAjO2w.dpuf

Academic vs. Industry Careers zz

The following is an edited transcription of a Q&A session titled "Academic Careers vs. Industry Careers" given by Greg Duncan and Guy Lebanon to summer interns at Amazon in the summer of 2014. Some of the content is specifically aimed at the fields of machine learning, statistics, and economics. The content does not reflect the official perspective of Amazon in any way.

Q: What are your backgrounds?

Greg: I am the Chief Economist and Statistician in GIP. I do a variety of things and depending on what day you are talking to me I'm one of an economist, a statistician, a machine learner or a data scientist. I have a PhD in economics, an MS in statistics, and a BA in economics and English. I work on a variety of statistical and forecasting issues in our Global Inventory Planning process, and I do data science consulting generally within Amazon. I am responsible for the algorithm that powers the buy box on Amazon's web site.

I have 40 years of experience in data science, economics, and statistics. I was a full professor in both economics and statistics and had faculty appointments at Northwestern (6 years), UC Berkeley (12 years), WSU (9 years), Cal Tech (2 years), and USC (3 years). Currently, I have a part time appointment at UW's economics department in addition to my full time position at Amazon. I've had joint positions between industry and academia for most of my career. I've supervised more than 20 PhD dissertations and 18 of them are full professors, some of them in good places: CMU, Maryland, UCSD, and the University of Wisconsin. I have an early 1980 paper that lays out map reduce and mini-batch SGD (though using other names).

I quit publishing in 1989 since I was at Verizon and GTE labs and they didn't allow publishing. I was the chief scientist at GTE lab and I led the team that designed the spectrum auction algorithm for the Verizon wireless network. I also designed and fielded hundreds of consumer preference surveys. I then transitioned to consulting and worked at National Economics Research Associates (NERA; a Marsh McLennan firm) as senior VP and management committee member. Later I was Managing Director at the consulting firms Huron and Deloitte, and a Principal at the Brattle consulting group. I then retired, but about two years ago I came out of retirement to join Amazon.

Guy: I grew up and went to college in Israel. I came to the US in 2000 for a PhD at Carnegie Mellon University. I graduated in 2005 with a thesis in the area of machine learning. It was clear to me since my sophomore year in college (1997) that I wanted to be a professor. I've worked towards that goal in a very focused way from 1997 to my PhD graduation in 2005. I was lucky to get a faculty job right after graduation and I joined Purdue as an assistant professor in 2005. Due to a two-body situation and geographical constraints I decided to move in 2008 and I ended up at at Georgia Tech. I got tenure and promotion to associate professor at 2012 and then went on a one year sabbatical at Google. At the end of my sabbatical my wife and I decided to stay on the west coast and I decided to stay in industry, but move to Amazon rather than stay at Google.

Q: What are your main messages about careers in industry vs. careers in academia?

Greg: Here are my main points:

  1. There is a lot more freedom in academia than in industry, but the problems are not as interesting.
  2. The stuff you do in industry ends up actually being used.
  3. Industry jobs pay well, while academic jobs do not.

Guy: First, I would like to point out that there is no objective right choice here. There are pros and cons and the right answer depends on the person, and possibly even the specific time in a person's life. For example, for me the right choice in 2005 was to join academia, but in 2013 it was to move to industry.

The main pros of academic jobs are:

  1. Freedom. Despite what some recent blogs say about professors not being completely free due to their need to publish and get grants, there is much more freedom in academia than in industry. This is true for young faculty members, but it is especially true for senior faculty members. They do not report to a manager in the same sense that they would in industry. As long as they remain somewhat active in publishing and grants, they can work on whatever they want.
  2. Theory. Academic jobs are much more suited than industry jobs for people who want to work on theory. This is true for pure mathematicians and for CS theorists, but it is also true for people who mix theory and algorithms.
  3. Teaching. Not everyone likes to teach, but if you do then this is a huge pro. I like teaching and I felt a lot of satisfaction from teaching students of all levels.
  4. Stability (see below).

The main pros of industry jobs are:

  1. Big Impact. A few people can accomplish something truly big and important on their own. Albert Einstein comes to mind. The other 99% need a lot of help, especially in computer science. The help includes a team, proprietary data, and massive computing resources that are all generally unavailable in academia. I want to clarify that I'm talking about really big accomplishments that revolutionize our world, for example, the Internet, cloud computing, smart-phones, and e-commerce. These revolutions all required a lot of people working together and a lot of financial support. In academia you can develop some theory that will influence these revolutions to some degree but it is very rare to actually be the main driver of these revolutions.
  2. Teamwork. Academic work is pretty solitary. Professors meet periodically with their students and colleagues, but it doesn't come close to the teamwork that you find in industry. Some people prefer to work alone, and that is fine (notice my point above though that real impact requires teamwork). But for people that enjoy being a part of a team or leading a team this aspect of industry can be a big pro.
  3. Two Body Careers and Geography. In the high-tech industry it is fairly easy to find a good job in many regions. For example, you can find many good opportunities in the US at San Francisco, the bay area, Seattle, New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, and Chicago. Some of these locations have more opportunities than others, but a good candidate can find good options in any of the above locations, and many other locations as well. In academia, a typical applicant sends 10–50 applications all over the country, and if they are lucky they get one or two offers — likely in places that are not their top choices. This is a problem for the professor, but it is an even bigger problem for the professor's spouse, who is likely to have a separate geographic preferences.
  4. Compensation. Compensation is much better in industry than academia. The compensation gap is minimal right after PhD graduation, but it widens significantly with time. It depends on many factors, but is quite possible for the pay gap to grow to more than 100% after 10 years (possibly significantly more than 100%). Many young PhD graduates don't consider this a priority right away, but this becomes a bigger priority later on when the graduates plan on having kids, buying a house, etc.
  5. Opportunities (see next paragraph).

Workplace and role stability is much higher at academia and it can be both a pro and a con. It is a pro since it is nice to not worry about what happens next and being able to make long term plans. It is a con since stability is negatively correlated with new opportunities. In industry people frequently leave and roles change and this can often lead to exciting new opportunities. For example, my immediate manager at Amazon left a few months after I started. This caused some unexpected issues for me, but things turned out very well at the end — I got an opportunity to interact directly with Amazon's leadership team. Industry is full of opportunities, but one has to be ready for some amount of instability.

There are two stories that I want to mention next that are relevant for this discussion.

Story 1: As a professor and graduate student, I noticed that professors often "brainwash" graduate students that academic jobs are the best path forward for the best students, and that industry jobs should only be entertained if a faculty search is unsuccessful (or is unlikely to be successful). Professors convey this message to their students since they believe it to be true (after all they ended up being professors because that is what they believe). But there is an added incentive for professors to do that: placing your graduate students as faculty in top departments increases your reputation and your department's reputation and ranking. Indeed, the placement of graduate students as professors in good schools is a key component in how professors and departments are evaluated (both formally and informally). I personally witnessed department chairs and deans urging professors to push their top students to faculty jobs rather than industry.

While at school, graduate students receive this message from their thesis advisors and other professors they look up to. I want to offer here a different perspective and hopefully help people understand the relative pros and cons so they can make the best decision for themselves.

Story 2: A couple of years ago after getting tenure at Georgia Tech, I had a minor midlife crisis. I could choose to proceed in many different paths as a tenured professor, but I didn't know what to choose. I could focus on teaching or writing a book; I could keep writing research papers in my current area, or switch to a different research area. I started writing a book. I studied for some time new research fields (computational finance and renewable energy) — thinking that I may want to change my research direction. I eventually understood that the main question I need to answer is: "what do I want to do for the rest of my life?" This question is highly related to the question"looking back from retirement, what accomplishments will I consider to have been successful?"

The key insight for me was: publishing papers, having others cite my work, and getting awards is simply not good enough when the alternative is improving the world. In the future, when my kids ask me what I did during my long work days I want to point to more than a stack of papers, decent pay, and a length CV. I want to say that I played a big role in helping society and changing the world for the better. The chance of doing that in industry is much bigger than in academia. We are living in a unique age of increasingly fast revolutions: computers, Internet, e-commerce, smartphones, social networks, e-books. These recent revolutions were all driven by companies like Amazon, Apple, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft. We'll see many more revolutions in our lifetime including wearable devices, self-driving cars, online education, revolutions in medicine, and more. I do not mean to say that I can change the world by myself in a couple of years, but with the help of colleagues and over the period of several years it is possible.

Greg: I found most of my research topics in the nexus of computer science, economics, statistics, applied math, and psychology. At Amazon these areas are like tectonic plates hitting one another. Economists can do some things, statisticians can do other things, and data scientists can do other things. If you are in academia, it is not easy to work in that nexus. Many colleagues in the statistics department would say that is nice work but it is not really statistics stuff. The same thing would happen in computer science and economics departments. I find working in that nexus to be very exciting. It isn't clear what to do, but you realize that there is a problem and no one knows how to work on it. Another related issue is that in industry you need to solve a specific business problem, not a related problem as is often done in academia. It's a kind of freedom, but it is also a restriction. It's like writing a sonnet — you can do anything you want as long as you maintain its form.

I really like working at Amazon. Another place I had a lot of fun was Verizon where I had a lot of impact. When I see people buying stuff from Amazon I can point and say I helped make this work well. Similarity, when I see people using Verizon phones I can say I helped develop that technology.

In my area of economics and statistics you probably want to go to academia first, have your midlife crisis, and then move to industry. My mid life crisis, by the way, was having three kids preparing to go to college and realizing that even a senior tenured professor at a good university can't send them to college and can't buy a house. Perhaps an industry postdoc position would work well, in that people don't go straight to a faculty job but would have some industry experience first. Unfortunately, that does not happen frequently in economics or statistics.

Q: What limitation does an industry job places on future jobs. What if you choose industry first and then have a mid life crisis and want to move to academia?

Greg: In economics or statistics that would be a killer. However, I think in a growing field like data science perhaps you can switch to academia after industry. I think it is important to keep a connection with universities even when you are in industry. I have done that for much of my career. In fact, I recently taught a course on data science and I put the syllabus on the web. I got many requests from academics asking me to come and teach for their departments since they are trying to start an ML group.

Guy: This would not be a big deal if you are going to industry for a short amount of time (1–3 years) and then apply for faculty jobs. If you are in industry longer and want to keep the option of moving to academia you need to find a place that allows and even encourages publishing. You don't have to publish like crazy but you need to keep publishing. I also think that sometimes the most interesting papers come from industry since they work at a scale that academics don't have access to. Such papers are worth more than typical academic papers experimenting on standard public datasets and will be very valuable if you later apply for faculty jobs.

In machine learning, cutting edge is increasingly done in industry since academics don't have access to the really interesting data, evaluation methods, and computational resources. It is already impossible for academics to reproduce large-scale ML experiments described in industry papers and build upon them and this will become more common in the future. Once this happens more frequently, algorithmic and applied ML innovation will occur primarily in industry.

Greg: I want to amplify that. I get a lot of requests from former colleagues of mine that ask me to give them interesting Amazon data so they can work on it. The answer is usually no and not just at Amazon — Google and other companies would usually say the same thing. In industry you have access to datasets that academics can only dream of. You will be picking up stuff that is quite relevant and the market values that human capital significantly. Sometime universities hire industry veterans — for example USC does that. These veterans may not have PhD degrees even, but they have experience that is extremely valuable and generally unavailable in academia.

Guy: I want to mention a related issue. In academia the mindset is usually you join a department and you stay there until retirement. Perhaps you move from one university to another once in the middle of your career. In high-tech industry the mentality is very different these days. Many people join a company and then move after a few years, and then move again. Transitioning form one company to another is especially easy if you live in a high-tech hub like the bay area, Seattle, or New York City, but it happens in other places as well. As a result, young graduates should not feel that choosing between different industry options is a huge decision that will design their entire career without a possibility to backtrack from it.

Greg: That is a good point. In academia I can't tell you the number of times someone made me an offer and I said no I'm not interested, and then something changed and I called back after two years expressing interest and they said sorry — we can't reissue that offer at this point. That absolutely doesn't happen in industry. It's almost like fishing — we didn't get you this year but we'll try again next year. Maybe you will be upset for some reason and we'll be able to get later. The key thing is we are in a growing and expanding industry and as a consequence experienced people are in high demand.

Q: If you knew you were going to industry anyway would you still get a PhD and would you do anything different?

Guy: That is a very good question and if you look at the web there are a lot of blog posts discussing whether a PhD is worth it if you end up in industry. It's a parallel discussion to the discussion of academic vs. industry careers in that there are pros and cons and no right or wrong answer. It depends on the person, and the specific mindset they have at that point in their life.

In my case, I definitely do not regret doing the PhD. Doing a PhD means losing considerable money (often in terms of opportunity cost), but the way I see it one should optimize for their long-term career rather than for a 5–10 years horizon. If you do a PhD and move to industry, in some sense you lose 5 years, but there will be enough time in your future 30–40 years to make up for that financially and otherwise. The PhD experience will likely be the only time in your life where you can look at a problem and study it and become a real expert at it without distractions. In industry you have distractions like needing to launch a product or fixing an urgent problem, and you may not be able to learn fundamental skills that take years to develop. For example, a deep understanding of machine learning requires deep knowledge of statistics, probability, real analysis, linear algebra, etc. If you are working on an ML product in industry you just don't have the time and peace of mind to dive deep and properly learn all these areas. I also think it is an enjoyable experience and it shapes your personality in some way. There is plenty of time afterwards to worry about product launches and changing the world.

Greg: I have a different perspective. In economics you really need a PhD and in statistics it is getting to the point where you really need a PhD to do scientific work. The reason is that we have a mature discipline now. In the 1950s a very smart creative MS or even BS could become a professor. These days I can pretty much tell who has a PhD and who doesn't based on the way they think. In my area, when you get to the MS level you feel like know everything, and everyone at that level knows everything. If you do a PhD, your thesis advisor says tell me something we have never heard of. You have to demonstrate your creativity and you have to learn how to be creative and solve problems that are ambiguous and aren't well defined. The best theses are in areas where people may not even know that there are problems and as a consequence people are doing things incorrectly. Such significant creativity does not usually come from people that didn't get a PhD since they didn't develop that mindset. And so not having a PhD stands out much more than 60 years ago.

Guy: I agree with Greg, but I don't think it is quite as pronounced in computer science. You do normally need a PhD to be a scientist, but there are a lot of exciting innovations that can be accomplished without a PhD experience. I also want to say that being a scientist is not the only way to do exciting things and make a significant impact. You can be an engineer, a product manager, a people manager, UX designer and you can do amazing things that change the world.

Greg: I agree. I was referring to a research scientist working in areas of statistics or economics. Also, if you want to go the business route a PhD is not very relevant — you should get an MBA instead.

Q: What about publication policy at Amazon and at other companies?

Greg: If you are doing something that is very relevant to Amazon the last thing you want is to publish it and have a competitor get it. At Verizon and GTE lab we had a no or minimal publication policy. We thought Bell labs messed up and gave their stuff away. On the other hand, people who are starting their careers do need to publish, and I am sympathetic to balancing the need for having people know about you and your work. Early in your career it is important to publish, which is why I think it makes sense to have an academic job first.

Guy: I think companies should publish to some extent, assuming their business interests are maintained. Many companies including Amazon have a publication policy where people submit a request to publish a paper and someone goes over the request and decides whether to let you publish, ask you to change the paper, or just prohibit it altogether at this point in time.

Q: What about choosing between a researcher career and a software engineer career?

Guy: I want again to clarify a misconception that researchers in industry are better or more senior than engineers. That is simply not the case. For example my manager is a business person and doesn't have a PhD, but I have a lot of respect for him, his experience and what he accomplished. I have no problem taking directions from a manager, regardless of whether he is a scientist, an engineer, or a business person. Similarly, I have a lot of respect to my colleagues in different job ladders. Unless you are at a place that focuses on pure research (like MSR, though that may be changing there as well), the goal of both scientists and engineers are the same: develop a great product and help the company and its customers. People in different job ladders would have different strengths but everyone works as a team to get things done. A software engineer would have really strong skill set in one area and a scientist would have a really strong skill set in another area.

Q: How did you feel your impact change when you moved from academia to Google and when you moved from Google to Amazon?

Guy: When I was in academia I felt that I had an impact — people cited my work and told me that they liked my paper and that it inspired them. I got invited to give talks and received a few awards. I felt good about myself and my impact. But when I moved to industry and saw how industry is rapidly changing the world, it put the academic impact in perspective. What I previously thought of as big impact all of a sudden became minor and elusive. It was hard to point at concrete long-lasting ripple effects that my work had on the real world (except the influence I had on my students).

When I was at Google, I was officially on sabbatical and I kept the option of going back to academia open. This resulted in some lack of focus and so my impact at Google was mostly scientific. At Amazon I officially resigned from Georgia Tech and jumped with both feet into an industry career. That changed in mindset and resulted in having a more profound product impact.

Greg: I, too, went on sabbatical to GTE Labs and I intended to come back, but afterwards decided to stay in industry. I had a good publication record and citations, but it wasn't the kind of impact that I had at Verizon or that I have here at Amazon. The impact you can have in industry is real and immediate. It's like baking bread in that you work hard and the loaf comes out and you eat it — instant gratification. In academia you submit your article, and then you wait a while and the reviews come back with revise-and-resubmit decision. Then you wait a bit and you go back and do some work, and then resubmit. Perhaps at the end it gets into the journal but by the time people read and ask me about it, I'm working on something else and sometimes I even hardly remember that paper. I remember that somebody asked me about a paper recently and I had to look it up — I forgot I even wrote it. The point is that impact in industry is real and palpable and people note it. Also, about politics: many businesses are political, but what I've seen is that they are less political than any economics or statistics department I've been in. Perhaps Guy can comment on politics in CS.

Guy: At Purdue's ECE department there was quite a bit of politics that actually shocked me as a new assistant professor. The other departments I have been at were not very political.

Q: How do you compare work life balance between industry and academia?

Greg: I think work life balance is a lot better in industry. In academia for the first 10 years people are very focused on getting tenure and then getting to full professor. If you are not working on weekends — you are not going to get promoted. It's as simple as that. At Amazon and at GTE Lab and Verizon you can organize your time so that you have more time for your family. On the other hand, we are all professionals and most of us would do the work for free. I'm the luckiest person in the world since they pay me for doing something that I love doing.

Guy: I had a different experience in that I don't think work life balance at academia has to be much worse. There are about 3 years where I was working particularly hard and I've seen my colleagues work particularly hard (years 2–4 of tenure track). In general, I was at work from 8 in the morning until 5 in the afternoon with occasional extra work later at night if needed. I do the same thing right now in industry. I do think it depends on each person and in both industry and academia there are workaholics or people who are influenced by workaholics to work very long hours.

One nice thing about academia is that work is more flexible and you can work from home (or other places) more. Also, it is really nice to have the academic flexibility during the summer semester.